Victoria’s Election: A Battle for the Soul of the State — and a Signal for the Nation

Victoria’s November 28 election has become a crucible for the fractures tearing through Australia’s political landscape. What began as a routine state contest now carries national weight, as a sudden change of premier, a fractured Liberal opposition, and the surging far-right One Nation party reshape the terrain. For communities already bearing the brunt of systemic violence — from police brutality to austerity — the outcome will send ripples far beyond the state’s borders.

Why This Election Matters Beyond Victoria

At first glance, this is a state election. But the dynamics at play — a Labor government reeling from corruption scandals, a Liberal party in crisis, and One Nation poised to exploit the vacuum — mirror the broader unraveling of Australia’s political center. If opposition leader Jess Wilson wins, the Liberals will claim a lifeline. But if One Nation secures a foothold in the upper house and a clutch of lower house seats, its momentum will accelerate nationally, deepening the crisis for the conservative coalition and emboldening the far right.

The Labor Government: A Toxic Brand and a Desperate Pivot

Labor enters this election with a brand so damaged that even a third premier in a single term cannot wash away the stain. The Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission’s (IBAC) report on the Andrews government’s secret deal with the firefighters’ union exposed “serious and concerning conduct” — deliberate concealment, misuse of information, and actions that increased the risk of corruption. While IBAC’s narrow mandate prevented a finding of actual corruption, the report painted a picture of a government willing to bend rules to protect its allies. Premier Ben Carroll, installed to “save the furniture,” has tried to distance himself from his predecessors, declaring “I am not Daniel Andrews” and promising a royal commission into construction sector corruption. But Carroll served in both Andrews and Allan’s cabinets, and his pivot feels like a performance — a desperate attempt to escape a past he helped create.

One Nation’s Rise: Exploiting Trauma and Discontent

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is capitalizing on the vacuum left by a discredited Labor and a fractured Liberal party. With a Redbridge poll showing One Nation at 22% (down from 27% in June, but still a potent force), Hanson’s rhetoric taps into a “deep psychological trauma” — as pollster Kos Samaras puts it — stemming from Victoria’s record COVID lockdowns. This trauma, Samaras argues, is now “playing into the election” in ways that benefit the far right. For BIPOC, migrant, and working-class communities, One Nation’s platform is a direct threat: its anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim, and anti-LGBTQIA+ stance echoes the global rise of authoritarian populism. The party’s leader in Victoria, Warren Pickering, is running in the outer suburban seat of Pakenham, a region where economic precarity and cultural anxiety fuel its appeal.

The Liberal Opposition: A Fragile Coalition of Convenience

Jess Wilson, the 36-year-old Liberal leader in her first parliamentary term, carries the weight of a party that has cycled through three leaders this term. The Liberals only recently disendorsed controversial upper house member Moira Deeming after her unsubstantiated claims against former leader Matthew Guy. Wilson’s team is weak, the glue holding them together is thin, and her campaign will depend on her ability to carry an enormous load — including serving as shadow treasurer. If the Liberals win, they may need One Nation’s support to govern, raising the specter of a formal coalition with the far right. For activists and marginalized communities, this is a nightmare scenario: a government that could roll back protections for trans people, migrants, and workers.

What This Means for Marginalized Communities

This election is not just about political parties — it is about who gets to exist safely in Victoria. One Nation’s rise threatens the hard-won gains of LGBTQIA+ communities, migrants, and people of color. The IBAC report’s exposure of government corruption, meanwhile, underscores how state power is wielded against the most vulnerable. For activists, the choice is stark: a Labor party that has betrayed its progressive base, a Liberal party in crisis, or a far-right party that openly targets their existence. The only alternative, the Greens at 14%, offers a sliver of hope — but their electoral math remains uncertain.

Conclusion: A Signal for the Nation

Victoria’s election is a microcosm of Australia’s political crisis: a system where corruption, trauma, and far-right populism feed each other. The outcome will send a signal to federal players — a warning that the center cannot hold. For those of us committed to intersectional justice, the fight is not just at the ballot box but in the streets, in our communities, and in the work of building alternatives to a system that fails us all. #VicVotes #OneNation #AbolishThePolice #SolidarityNotSilence